Category Archives: Dem Prospects

Talking about underage shortstops from the southern hemisphere and other talented children of the kind.

Shaq Thompson and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Baseball Career

by Jordan Shusterman

A couple weeks ago, I was scrolling through the ol’ Twitter feed when I came across this:

Shaq Thompson? I recognized that name from somewhere. I haven’t really ever followed college football so I knew it had to be something other than football. Eventually, it came to me. Shaq Thompson, the most versatile college football player in the nation, had the worst statistical career in professional baseball history.

In high school, Thompson was a football and track standout. He played in the 2012 U.S. Army All-American Bowl and specialized in the 200-meter dash. After his senior year, Thompson was the no. 1 safety recruit and the no. 4 overall recruit in the nation. He committed to play football at the University of Washington. Thompson, now a junior linebacker for the Huskies, has thrived on the gridiron and has earned national recognition as one of the best all-around players in the country. So where does his baseball career fit in?

Back in 2012, Alex Speier documented Thompson’s incredible journey from his middle school days to his last at-bat in pro ball. It’s especially worth the read now, knowing of Thompson’s immense success on the football field. The Red Sox took a chance on Thompson in the 18th round of the 2012 Draft, with the hope that he could turn his raw athletic gifts into actual baseball skills. Thompson had only played baseball in senior year, and fared well against weak competition, but teams love to gamble on freak athletes with the hope that they can actually learn how to play baseball. Thompson was still committed to playing football for the Huskies in the fall, but wanted to give baseball, a sport he loved as a kid, a try before heading up to Washington. Thompson played in 13 games for the Red Sox in the Gulf Coast League (the lowest level of the minor leagues) over the span of a month–from June 20th to the July 20th. This is how it went:

Game 1

1st plate appearance: strikeout swinging

2nd plate appearance: strikeout looking

3rd plate appearance: walk

4th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

5th plate appearance: walk

Game 2

6th plate appearance: strikeout looking

7th plate appearance: strikeout looking

8th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

Game 3

9th plate appearance: walk

10th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

11th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

12th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

13th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

Game 4

14th plate appearance: strikeout looking

15th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

16th plate appearance: strikeout looking

Game 5

17th plate appearance: strikeout looking

18th plate appearance: strikeout looking

19th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

Game 6

20th plate appearance: RBI ground out to 1st (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

21st plate appearance: strikeout swinging

22nd plate appearance: walk

Game 7

23rd plate appearance: strikeout looking

24th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

25th plate appearance: strikeout looking

Game 8

26th plate appearance: strikeout looking

27th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

28th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

Game 9

29th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

30th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

31st plate appearance: walk

Game 10

32nd plate appearance: strikeout swinging

33rd plate appearance: walk

34th plate appearance: walk

Game 11

35th plate appearance: strikeout looking

36th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

37th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

38th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

39th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

Game 12

40th plate appearance: walk

41st plate appearance: strikeout looking

42nd plate appearance: strikeout looking

43rd plate appearance: strikeout looking

44th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

45th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

Game 13

46th plate appearance: strikeout swinging

47th plate appearance: lineout to right field

Shaq Thompson went 0-39 with 37 strikeouts. His career line was .000/.170/.000. 

Over his 47 plate appearances, Thompson put the ball in play twice while striking out 79% of the time. He had a .170 OPS, which was also his OBP. Even if you lower the minimum plate appearances threshold to 40, only two position players in baseball history have had a lower OPS for their careers. The next closest (and most recent) is Cincinnati infielder Neftali Soto, who has hit .071/.091/.095 in his first 44 plate appearances. Of course, that’s in the big leagues. Unfortunately, there is no Play Index for the GCL or any level of the minors, so I’m only 99.99% certain that Thompson holds the title for Worst Professional Career Ever. Thompson’s eight walks can most likely be attributed to some combination of the inexperienced pitchers he was facing and the presumed occasional strategy of just not swinging at all. Thompson had the 6th most strikeouts on his team and the 16th most plate appearances. I could go on, but I already feel kinda bad. It doesn’t take advanced stats to know how bad he was. Although, let’s give him credit: he did have one RBI.

Barry Petchesky of Deadspin did a great piece on Thompson right after he unsurprisingly declared his baseball career over. The end of the piece really sums up how I feel about Thompson’s epic struggles:

“Ted Williams always maintained that the hardest thing to do in sports is to hit a baseball. That quote plays well with the crowd who holds up “The Green Fields of the Mind” as great American literature, but it’s surely meaningless. Hitting a ball is hard. Memorizing a football playbook is hard. Sticking with the receiver on an out route is hard. Everything in sports is difficult in its own way, and something like hitting a baseball is so divorced from any other skill set as to be an almost irrelevant marker of athletic talent. Shaq Thompson’s minor league struggles don’t have to mean anything, other than the objective fact that he went 0-for-39, with 37 strikeouts. We’ll always have that.”

I agree: Shaq Thompson’s failures in the GCL don’t definitively tell us anything about professional baseball or Thompson himself. And yet, his brief stint in pro ball can give us some perspective. If you take a not-so-scientific look at the Crazy-Athlete-Trying-To-Play-Baseball Spectrum, you’ll see that most of those attempts to play pro ball end in failure. Thompson certainly represents one end of the so-called spectrum, but there are countless other examples of ‘lottery ticket’ athletes flaming out in the low-minors, much to the chagrin of their respective organizations. However, teams — some more than others — will continue to gamble on these super-freaks with the hope that just one of them really does evolve into a franchise-type player.

More than anything, I’m genuinely happy Shaq Thompson has rebounded so well from his briefly cataclysmic baseball career to become one of the best college football players in the country. ESPN’s Todd McShay recently projected Thompson to be a mid-1st round pick in the 2015 NFL draft, citing him as a “unique talent with an outstanding combination of size, speed, and athleticism”. Thompson’s success on the gridiron only further proves Petchesky’s point that his struggles in pro ball don’t really tell us anything about Thompson or baseball. It was just a remarkably ridiculous thing that happened. Thompson tried one professional sport and failed spectacularly. He’s about to try another professional sport, and has a much better chance at succeeding. That’s pretty awesome! Two professional sports!

There have been plenty of other great football players drafted by baseball teams based on their athletic abilities and performance in high school. Most of them never step foot on a minor league field. You know who else was drafted out of high school in the 18th round? Tom Brady! Tom Brady could have been the one to go 0-39 with 37 strikeouts. We’ll never know. I’m obviously not faulting Brady or any other athlete that chose to forego baseball for other sports, but give Thompson credit: he tried! Just because he turned to be the one to go 0-39 with 37 strikeouts doesn’t mean he’s the only one that could have gone 0-39 with 37 strikeouts. In fact, I’m almost positive Jon Heyman would’ve gone 0-47 with 47 strikeouts if given the opportunity.

Shaq Thompson may hold the title for Worst Professional Baseball Career Ever. But he also briefly held the title of Professional Baseball Player. Soon, he’ll hold the title of Professional Football Player. That’s more than you or I can say. Unless Bo Jackson is reading this, in which case, hey Bo Jackson!

 

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

How To Eat Fried Piwnica-Worms

by jakemintz

As you might know, we enjoy going to Hagerstown Suns games. They are the Low-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals. There is a fantastically awesome outfielder on their current roster named Will Piwnica-Worms. No, seriously.

20130708-011003.jpg

Twas a glorious book from our childhood and was later turned into a movie. It’s How To Eat Fried Piwnica-Worms.

 

 

Trip Preview: Day 2

by jakemintz

As some of you know, Jordan and I will be embarking on our crazy trip next week. We will drive over 1,900 miles in the pursuit of whatever it is we are pursuing. We shall chronicle all our adventures on the blog and on the new podcast we plan to start on the trip. In anticipation of these shenanigans, this week I’ll be previewing each of our stops along the way. Hope you enjoy.

Monday, July 8th

Start Point: Somewhere near Toledo

End Point: Somewhere near Clinton, Iowa

Approximate Milage: 386 Miles

Driving Time: 6 Hours and 2 Minutes

Baseball Stuff: Cedar Rapids Kernels @ Clinton Lumberkings

  • Prospects: Gaby Guerrero, Tyler Pike, Victor Sanchez, Guillermo Pimentel, Niko Goodrum, Jose Berrios, Adam Brett Walker, Max Kepler.

Notes: We missed Buxton by 2 weeks. It was the reason we were driving all the way to Iowa. We were downtrodden and heartbroken. It was the end of the world. There are still a mess of prospects to catch in Clinton however, our favorite of whom being the Twins’ German outfielder Kepler. Born and raised in the motherland, Kepler is a crazy athlete who has a chance to be the first German born outfielder to make the major leagues. The Lumberkings boast Gaby Guerrero, Vlads just-as-free-swinging nephew. After the game we will drive an hour north towards our next day’s destination: The Field Of Dreams.

Buxton Watch: The End of Buxton Watch

by Jordan Shusterman

Welp, that didn’t take long. Yesterday, after going 2-5 with his tenth triple of the year, Byron Buxton, who clearly doesn’t care about our prospect viewing needs at all, was promoted to High-A Fort Myers. Twins GM Terry Ryan was apparently in attendance for the entirety of this past weekend’s series, and he liked what he saw. This won’t change our plan to see Cedar Rapids in Clinton, and there is still a plethora of talent on the two squads that we can’t wait to see. But the timing of this is just painful.

Continue reading →

Buxton Watch: 15 Days To Go

by Jordan Shusterman

As some of you may know, Jake and I are going on a trip this summer. The beginning of that trip includes driving approximately 13 hours over two days on a magical quest to see Twins uber-prospect Byron Buxton play against the Clinton LumberKings in Clinton, Iowa on Monday, July 8th.There’s one problem: Buxton is way way way too good for the Midwest League. Through 67 games, Buxton is triple-slashing .34o/.429/.555. He’s also stolen 32 bases, drawn 43 walks and scored 67 runs. He’s too good, and he should be promoted.

Last week was the Midwest League All-Star break. It was assumed by most prospect enthusiasts that Buxton would be promoted to High-A Fort Myers after the break. By some miracle (see what I did there (they’re the Fort Myers Miracle)), Buxton remains in Cedar Rapids. Since the break, Buxton is 3-12 with three walks and three stolen bases. Last night, he hit his ninth triple of the year.

After his non-promotion, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony said “it won’t be long” before Buxton is bumped up.

Basically, as much as we love Buxton demoralizing Low-A competition, we’re desperately hoping that he remains at the level for three more weeks before heading off to the Florida State League. If he gets promoted, we’ll see be able to see guys like Max Kepler, Gabriel Guerrero, and such at Clinton, but the experience of seeing Buxton in person is something that could not be topped.

So I’m gonna be posting a daily update of what Buxton did the night before. Let’s cross our fingers for a sudden slump. The Buxton Watch begins.

15 Days To Go.

CFB Takes Hagerstown

by Jordan Shusterman

Jake got home last week from the Holy Land and we decided that it was time we both see our first game of the year. The Hagerstown Suns, the Low-A South Atlantic League affiliate of the Washington Nationals, are about an hour north of us. Conveniently enough, the Lexington Legends, the affiliate of the Kansas City Royals, were coming to Hagerstown for the weekend. What’s so special about the Lexington Legends, you might wonder? Well, besides the fact that this

is the hat they wear, their roster is loaded with absurdly young talent that we couldn’t wait to see. Specifically, the 7.5 million dollar man known as Bubba Starling, the Royals fifth overall pick from 2011, as well as the 17 year old son of former All-Star outfielder Raul Mondesi, Adalberto Mondesi. (Adalberto is his middle name and he’d rather go by his first name which is…Raul. His brother’s name is Raul too. Seriously.)  So how was our experience ?

Continue reading →

First Base Prospects Will Probably Disappoint You

by Jordan Shusterman

Prospects are fun. They allow us to dream on their basic skill sets and imagine greatness eventually produced at the major league level. First base prospects in specific present a certain type of vision. While the offensive standard for first basemen of late has plummeted, we still want that .300/.400/.500 type slugger at first for our favorite teams. It’s a commodity that has become increasingly hard to find over the last few years. We’re all still waiting for Eric Hosmer to break out. Yonder Alonso has yet to really show anything and Anthony Rizzo still struggles mightily against lefties. Paul Goldschmidt has been very impressive so far but not many people saw this level of production coming. The only true high-end first base prospect in the minors today is Jonathan Singleton for the Astros.

With the help of the free archives of Baseball Prospectus (specifically Kevin Goldstein ‘s scouting reports from his Top 11 lists), I’m gonna look back a few years. This was a time with several high end first base prospects on the rise. These were supposed to be superstar level talents, getting on base at high clips and hitting for plenty of power. This is not meant to discredit Baseball Prospectus in any way; all five of these players were highly regarded throughout the industry.

Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics (2008):

barton 2008

Just a glowing report. He’s gonna bring offensive firepower to Oakland for years to come. No doubt. FLAWLESS PLATE-DISCIPLINE.

Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics (2013):

Besides a freak 2010 season, in which he expressed his “flawless plate-discipline” in the form of a major league leading 110 walks, Barton has yet to show much of the hitting acumen he was praised for as a prospect. He has yet to play a game for Oakland this season, and has 27 career home runs through 1,901 career plate appearances. He has slugged .371 for his career. Daric Barton is 27 years old.

Lars Anderson, Boston Red Sox (2009):

lars 2009

An elite offensive talent. Maturity and intelligence well beyond his years. He’s going to mash.

Lars Anderson, Chicago White Sox (2013): 

Anderson got 56 major league plate appearances over three years with the Red Sox in which he posted a .455 OPS. Last summer, the Sox finally gave up on Anderson and traded him to Cleveland for a knuckleballer named Steven Wright. Several months later, he was traded to Arizona. After that, he was DFA’d by Arizona, claimed by the White Sox, DFA’d by the White Sox, claimed by the Blue Jays, and finally traded back to the White Sox this April. He is currently slugging .267 at Triple-A Charlotte. Lars Anderson is 25 years old.

Matt LaPorta, Cleveland Indians (2009):

laporta 2009

The key piece in the Sabathia deal (!!!!!!). Plus-plus power to all fields. Cleanup hitter on a championship-level team.

Matt LaPorta, Cleveland Indians (2013): 

LaPorta has pretty much exhausted all of his opportunities to start for the Indians. He’s got a career OBP of .301 through 1068 plate appearances, with his “plus-plus power to all fields” only producing 31 home runs. He has not played a single game for Cleveland this season. Matt LaPorta is 28 years old.

Brett Wallace, St. Louis Cardinals (2009):

wallace 2009

Outstanding hand/eye coordination. Enough arm for the hot corner (!!!!!!!!!!!!!). He’ll be among the league leaders in batting average.

Brett Wallace, Houston Astros (2013): 

Outstanding trade bait indeed, as Wallace was traded three times before landing in Houston.  Since making his debut in 2010, Wallace has posted an OPS of .682 through 818 plate appearances. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-reference have Wallace at well below replacement level for his career. Before being optioned to Triple-A, Wallace started the 2013 season 1-24 with 17 strikeouts. Brett Wallace is 26 years old.

Justin Smoak, Texas Rangers (2009):

smoak 2009

An impact hitter in the middle of a lineup. Power from both sides of the plate. Let’s face it, HE’S GOING TO HIT.

Justin Smoak, Seattle Mariners (2013):

Since being traded to Seattle for CLIFF LEE in 2010, Smoak has disappointed the Mariners and their fans to the point that I’m not sure I’m gonna be able to get through this paragraph without getting emotional. Smoak has shown flashes of competency but has mainly expressed his appreciation for groundouts and lazy flyouts through the form of a .372 career slugging percentage over 1,500 plate appearances. As one of 17 first base/designated hitters on the Mariners, I’m curious to see how much playing time he gets this year as the season goes on. HE CAN’T BE THIS BAD. Justin Smoak is 26 years old.

***

IN CONCLUSION…baseball is hard. It’s easy to look back at these failed prospects and get frustrated with what never came to be. I think it’s also a way to appreciate how incredibly difficult major league baseball is. Justin Smoak is a horrendous major league baseball player but holy crap he is an amazing baseball player. It’s never stressed enough how insanely hard it is to succeed at the highest level of this sport. There are success stories, and there are these five players. All five player reached the major league level. And sure, over a combined 5,384 plate appearances they’ve only hit 122 home runs (one every 44 at-bats). And sure, they’ve amassed an astonishingly low total of 6.9 b-ref WAR and 3.5 FanGraphs WAR (which is even more nuts when you realize that Daric Barton’s 2010 alone was worth 5.4 wins and 4.8 wins respectively). But they reached a level that thousands upon thousands of players will never even sniff. Baseball is hard.

 

Baseball America 2013 Best Tools Compilation: The Pitchers

by Jordan Shusterman

Dylan Bundy

There are an endless number of sites devoted to baseball prospects, and while I think it’s safe to say our personal favorite here at CFB is Baseball Prospectus, the other giant in the internet world of prospecting, Baseball America, does something extremely fascinating every year to go along with their Top 10 lists. They take 15 tools, from Best Hit Tool to Best Outfield Arm, and assign one player from each organization one of these distinctions. Over the past few months, I’ve been compiling them in a spreadsheet as the team lists have come out. They concluded with the San Francisco Giants last week, so all the Best Tools have been handed out. It should be noted that some of these lists came out before certain trades, so you will see some players (new Marlin Justin Nicolino, for example) on teams that they no longer play for. However, I think a general compilation of these tools is helpful and interesting to look at.

We’ve seen the offense and the defense, so let’s take a look at the pitchers.

A breakdown by handedness:

Best Fastball: 29 RHP’s and 1 LHP

Best Curveball: 24 RHP’s and 6 LHP’s

Best Slider: 24 RHP’s and 6 LHP’s

Best Changeup: 17 RHP’s and 13 LHP’s

Best Control: 21 RHP’s and 9 LHP’s

AL EAST

AL east pitching

AL CENTRAL

AL central pitching

AL WEST

AL west pitching

NL EAST

NL east pitching

NL CENTRAL

NL central pitching

NL WEST

NL west pitching

Baseball America 2013 Best Tools Compilation: Defensive Tools

by Jordan Shusterman

Jose Iglesias doing Jose Iglesias things.

There are an endless number of sites devoted to baseball prospects, and while I think it’s safe to say our personal favorite here at CFB is Baseball Prospectus, the other giant in the internet world of prospecting, Baseball America, does something extremely fascinating every year to go along with their Top 10 lists. They take 15 tools, from Best Hit Tool to Best Outfield Arm, and assign one player from each organization one of these distinctions. Over the past few months, I’ve been compiling them in a spreadsheet as the team lists have come out. They concluded with the San Francisco Giants last week, so all the Best Tools have been handed out. It should be noted that some of these lists came out before certain trades, so you will see some players (new Marlin Jake Marisnick, for example) on teams that they no longer play for. However, I think a general compilation of these tools is helpful and interesting to look at.

Last week we looked at the best offensive tools. Today, we look at the defensive side of things.

A positional breakdown:

Best Defensive Infielder: 23 SS’s, 5 2B’s and 2 3B’s

Best Infield Arm: 17 3B’s and 13 SS’s

AL EAST

AL east defense

AL CENTRAL

AL central defense

AL WEST

AL west defense

NL EAST

NL east defense

NL CENTRAL

NL central defense

NL WEST

NL west defense